![]() Regional trade in maize, sorghum, rice, and dry beans was above average driven by above-average prices in deficit countries including Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, South Sudan,Įritrea, and Djibouti which attracted supplies from the main surplus countries of Tanzania, Uganda, and Ethiopia. Wheat and maize flour surpassed dry beans as the second and third most traded commodities in the region while, rice, sugar, and sorghum were significantly traded. Operational challenges related to power cuts and energy price adjustments in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Lesotho, and Malawi are also impacting domestic prices of food and non-food needs.Maize grain remained the most traded commodity in the region in the first quarter of 2022 between January and March as shown in Figure 1. Although most economies are probably past peak inflation levels, the deceleration is expected to be slow. Price increases are expected to continue through February but are likely to ease with the start of the green harvest in March. Maize prices in January continued to rise seasonally, with prices remaining above last year's levels due to rising fuel and fertilizer costs and depreciating domestic currencies. According to OCHA, 554,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the M23 crisis, with little likelihood of participating in the next agricultural season. In early January 2023, nearly 1,000 newly displaced households were received in the Kanyarutshinya camp in Nyiragongo. The ongoing conflict is continuing to displace households. In the DRC, clashes continue between M23 and local militias in Rutshuru and Masisi despite the recently signed Luanda accords, which recommend that the M23 rebels, among others, withdraw from conquered territories. Additionally, labor demand and wage rates for labor remain below normal across many parts of the region due to lower-than-normal liquidity for better-off households. The dry spells also affected agricultural activities like weeding and fertilizer application, reducing labor and income opportunities for poor households. In western areas of southern Africa, delayed planting may negatively impact the 2023 harvest due to the limited growing window. Throughout January, dry and hot conditions negatively impacted crops in southern Angola, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and northern and eastern Madagascar. In January, main-season cereals are in vegetative to reproductive stages, but crop conditions are mixed due to variations in rainfall across the region. The start of the harvest season in March and April is expected to improve access to staple food crops for poor households across southern Africa. In surplus-producing areas of Zimbabwe, Malawi's central and northern regions, and much of DRC and Mozambique, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected. However, some households in Rutshuru and Djugu, DRC, are experiencing significant food consumption gaps and are likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to the impact of the conflict. As the lean season peaks across the region, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present across typically deficit-producing areas of Zimbabwe and Lesotho, southern parts of Malawi, southwestern Angola, conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado in Mozambique, and in Kasai, Maniema, Tanganyika, Ituri, and North and South Kivu in the DRC.
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